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When Hurricane Ian made landfall in September 2022, Florida residents already were weary from three years of the COVID-19 pandemic. Category 4 winds and storm surge battered the Fort Myers area, forcing difficult decisions for both residents and responders.

A new study by researchers from USF鈥檚 (COPH) relives this nightmare scenario, but in doing so offers valuable data about responses to two merging disasters 鈭� and how that information could save lives in the future.

appeared in Weather, Climate and Society, a journal of the American Meteorological Society. The paper examines how the evolving COVID-19 pandemic affected perceptions of hurricane risks and whether to stay home or go to a shelter.

鈥淭he pandemic has likely played a role in influencing evacuation decisions in recent years,鈥欌�� the authors note. 鈥淭his study suggests a possible shift in this dynamic, with factors like increased access to vaccines and public health measures contributing to a decrease in the prominence of COVID-19 concerns during evacuations.鈥欌��

The COPH authors include , instructor II and student, and Dr. Rashida Jones, candidate; Leilani Paxton and Jennifer Collins of the USF School of Geosciences; Jason Young of Florida State University; and Anna Cecil of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. The team has been collecting data for five years to better understand how local communities respond to evacuation orders, to improve messaging, and to support vulnerable populations in how they cope with a major disaster.

鈥淥ur findings demonstrate a clear evolution in public thinking over the course of the pandemic,鈥欌�� Dunn said. 鈥淗urricanes Laura and Sally made landfall in the Gulf Coast region during the 2020 hurricane season and approximately 80% of individuals who chose to remain at home indicated that COVID-19 influenced their decision.鈥�

But by the time Hurricane Ian struck in 2022, a major shift in risk perception had occurred, with about 4% of those who sheltered in place citing COVID-19 as their primary concern.

鈥淧rior to the availability of vaccines, COVID-19 was often viewed as the greater evil,鈥欌�� Dunn said. 鈥淗owever, within a few years, perceptions shifted, and the immediate threat of the hurricane came to outweigh lingering concerns about the virus.鈥欌��

For many people in harm鈥檚 way, their first thought as a storm approached might have been, 鈥淒o I stay and risk it, or leave and expose myself of a potentially deadly disease?鈥欌�� Those perceptions, Paxton said, have altered significantly.

鈥淭he risk of exposure in a crowded public shelter is a central concern, but the issue is broader,鈥欌�� she said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 about a fundamental shift in risk assessment for any evacuation that brings you into close contact with others, whether at a shelter, hotel or a friend鈥檚 house.鈥欌��

Additionally, the study found that 50% of the respondents said having a pet played a significant role in their decision to stay home or evacuate.

Accessible, accurate information also played a role. More than 70% strongly agreed they were provided with timely information to make a good evacuation decision, relying on sources of information such as local media, county/city emergency preparedness websites and electronic media. The least relied on sources of information were social and print media.

The study highlights the importance of providing clear, consistent and timely information during a public health crisis, the authors said.

For the average person, this study highlights the real-world challenges and complexities families face when deciding whether or not to evacuate during a hurricane. It shows that factors like communication gaps, perceptions of health risks and trust in information sources can directly influence personal safety.

Elizabeth Dunn

The team hopes its research serves as a direct feedback loop to emergency management officials so they can launch aggressive awareness campaigns.

In the end, it boils down to empowerment through preparation and two key points:

• Know your real risk. People focus too much on a hurricane's category and not enough on the specific threats to their home, like storm surge. Find out your evacuation and flood zone and take official orders seriously.
• Have a complete plan. A vague idea to leave isn't enough. The team showed that half the pet owners who stayed did so because of their pets, so a plan must include them. Research pet friendly options before the storm nears.

鈥淔lorida is regularly in the hurricane path and evacuation decisions have very real implications, such as loss of life, property damage and the emotional and financial toll of preparing or evacuating,鈥欌�� Jones said. 鈥淥ur study helps Floridians understand why some people don鈥檛 evacuate even when ordered to do so, or why they delay, or avoid shelters. Sharing these insights can help residents make better-informed choices when faced with an evacuation order.鈥欌��